000			02741cam a22002778i 4500
001			135642
003			ISI Library, Kolkata
005			20150401132152.0
008			131107s2014 nju b 001 0 eng
020			_a9781118637920 (hardback)
040			_aISI Library
082	0	0	_a551.220112 _223 _bK11
100	1		_aKagan, Yan Y.,
245	1	0	_aEarthquakes : _bmodels, statistics, testable forecasts / _cYan Y. Kagan.
260			_aNew Jersey : _bJohn Wiley, _c2014.
300			_axviii, 283 p. ; _billustrations (some color), tables, maps.
490	0		_aStatistical physics of fracture and breakdown
504			_aIncludes bibliographical references and index.
505			_aPart I Models: 1. Motivation: Earthquake science challenges-- 2. Seismolgical background-- 3. Stochastic processes and earthquake occurrence models-- Part II Statistics: 4. Statistical distributions of earthquake numbers: Conseque3nce of branching process-- 5. Earthquake size distribution-- 6. Temporal earthquake distribution-- 7. Earthquake location distribution-- 8. Focal mechanism orientation and source complexity-- Part III testable forecasts: 9. Global earthquake patterns-- 10. Long and short-term earthquake forecasting-- 11. Testing long-term earthquake forecasts: likelihood methods and error diagrams-- 12. Future prospects and problems-- References-- Index.
520			_a"The proposed book is the first comprehensive and methodologically rigorous analysis of earthquake occurrence. Models based on the theory of the stochastic multidimensional point processes are employed to approximate the earthquake occurrence pattern and evaluate its parameters. The Author shows that most of these parameters have universal values. These results help explain the classical earthquake distributions: Omori's law and the Gutenberg-Richter relation. The Author derives a new negative-binomial distribution for earthquake numbers, instead of the Poisson distribution, and then determines a fractal correlation dimension for spatial distributions of earthquake hypocenters. The book also investigates the disorientation of earthquake focal mechanisms and shows that it follows the rotational Cauchy distribution. These statistical and mathematical advances make it possible to produce quantitative forecasts of earthquake occurrence. In these forecasts earthquake rate in time, space, and focal mechanism orientation is evaluated"--
520			_a"Our purpose is to analyze the causes of recent failures in earthquake forecasting, as well as the difficulties in earthquake investigation"--
650		0	_aEarthquake prediction.
650		0	_aEarthquake hazard analysis.
650		7	_aSCIENCE / Geophysics.
942			_2ddc _cBK
999			_c418890 _d418890